Rivalry in the Time of Pandemic: COVID-19 Impact on the Balance of Power between the United States and China
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.14422/cir.i22.y2021.005Keywords:
United States, China, COVID-19, balance of power, power transitionAbstract
In 2020, humanity witnessed with perplexity the expansion of the largest pandemic outbreak in the last century. The coronavirus crisis would have tragic effects on society and healthcare throughout the world, but its consequences go far beyond these two areas. In the field of international relations, the pandemic has impacted the balance of power between the United States and China, whose relationship was already facing rising tensions. While the former was unable to control the spread of the virus in its territory, the second managed to curb it after the initial bewilderment. In order to evaluate the impact of COVID-19 on the balance of power between both countries, this paper will focus on three areas: economic power, ideological power, and international maneuverability. The results indicate that China has been relatively favored, but also that the United States still has opportunities to preserve its international leadership.
Downloads
References
Agadjanian, A., & Horiuchi, Y. (2020). Has Trump Damaged the U.S. Image Abroad? Decomposing the Effects of Policy Messages on Foreign Public Opinion. Political Behavior, 42, 581-602. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11109-018-9511-3
Al Jazeera. (2020a). Japan struggles to avoid Trump’s tariff threat as deadline looms. https://www.aljazeera.com/economy/2019/9/10/japan-struggles-to-avoid-trumps-tariff-threat-as-deadline-looms
Al Jazeera. (2020b). Views on China in advanced economies sour over COVID-19. https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2020/10/7/negative-views-on-china-in-advanced-economies-reach-historic-high
Alden, E. (2020). Trump Is Escalating the Trade Fight With Europe—and There’s No Easy Way Out. Foreign Policy. https://foreignpolicy.com/2020/07/24/trump-biden-trade-war-europe/
Allan, B. B., Vucetic, S., & Hopf, T. (2018). The Distribution of Identity and the Future of International Order: China’s Hegemonic Prospects. International Organization, 72(4), 839-869. https://doi.org/10.1017/S0020818318000267
Allison, G. (2018). The Myth of the Liberal Order: From Historical Accident to Conventional Wisdom. Foreign Affairs. https://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/2018-06-14/myth-liberal-order
Amaro, S. (2020). EU to impose tariffs on up to $4 billion of U.S. products. CNBC. https://www.cnbc.com/2020/11/09/eu-to-impose-tariffs-on-4-billion-of-us-products.html
Blanchette, J., & Polk, A. (2020). Dual Circulation and China’s New Hedged Integration Strategy. Center for Strategic and International Studies. https://www.csis.org/analysis/dual-circulation-and-chinas-new-hedged-integration-strategy?amp
Brooks, S., & Wohlforth, W. (2015). The Rise and Fall of the Great Powers in the Twenty-first Century: China’s Rise and the Fate of America’s Global Position. International Security, 40(3), 7-53. https://doi.org/10.1162/ISEC_a_00225
Campbell, K., & Doshi, R. (2020). The Coronavirus Could Reshape Global Order. Foreign Affairs. https://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/china/2020-03-18/coronavirus-could-reshape-global-order
Cheng, E. (2020). China says its economy shrank by 6.8% in the first quarter as the country battled coronavirus. CNBC. https://www.cnbc.com/2020/04/17/china-economy-beijing-contracted-in-q1-2020-gdp-amid-coronavirus.html#close
Deutsche Welle. (2019). US imposes record $7.5 billion tariffs on European goods. https://www.dw.com/en/us-imposes-record-75-billion-tariffs-on-european-goods/a-50880622
Dollar, D., & Newby, A. (2020). How is COVID-19 affecting US trade? Brookings. https://www.brookings.edu/podcast-episode/how-is-covid-19-affecting-us-trade/
Economy, E. (2020). The Coronavirus Is a Stress Test for Xi Jinping.
European Commission. (2020). Autumn 2020 Economic Forecast: Rebound interrupted as resurgence of pandemic deepens uncertainty. Press release. https://ec.europa.eu/commission/presscorner/detail/en/ip_20_2021
Garrett, L. (2020). How China’s Incompetence Endangered the World. Foreign Policy. https://foreignpolicy.com/2020/02/15/coronavirus-xi-jinping-chinas-incompetence-endangered-the-world/
Global Times Editorial. (2020). Immoral to boost reelection by attacking WHO: Global Times editorial. Global Times. https://www.globaltimes.cn/content/1185734.shtml
Hale, T. (2020). China’s export growth hits highest level in 19 months. Financial Times. https://www.ft.com/content/ddc54582-ffa0-4d25-b3a9-0b8e87a894ad
He, L. (2020). China is winning the global economic recovery - CNN. CNN Business. https://edition.cnn.com/2020/10/10/economy/china-global-economy-intl-hnk/index.html
Ikenberry, J. (2018). The end of the liberal international order? International Affairs, 94(1), 7-23. https://doi.org/10.1093/ia/iix241
Irwin, N. (2020). It's the End of the World Economy as We Know It. The New York Times. https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/16/upshot/world-economy-restructuring-coronavirus.html
Johnston, A. (2019). China in a World of Orders: Rethinking Compliance and Challenge in Beijing’s International Relations. International Security, 44(2), 9-60. https://doi.org/10.1162/isec_a_00360
Kawate, I. (2021). China’s “zero COVID” ambitions hamper economic recovery. Nikkei Asia. https://asia.nikkei.com/Spotlight/Coronavirus/China-s-zero-COVID-ambitions-hamper-economic-recovery
Kissinger, H. (2015). China. Barcelona: Debate.
Kundnani, H. (2017). What is the Liberal International Order? The German Marshall Fund of the United States - Policy Essay, 17, 1–10.
Lam, W. (2020). How the Wuhan Epidemic Has Dented Xi Jinping’s Authority and Prestige. China Brief - The Jamestown Foundation, 20(3), 10-14.
Lascurettes, K. (2020). Orders of Exclusion: Great Powers and Strategic Sources of Foundational Rules in International Relations. New York: Oxford University Press. https://doi.org/10.1093/oso/9780190068547.001.0001
Layne, C. (2018). The US-Chinese power shift and the end of the Pax Americana. International Affairs, 94(1), 89-111. https://doi.org/https://doi.org/10.1093/ia/iix249
Leaders. (2020). The pandemic has caused the world’s economies to diverge. The Economist. https://www.economist.com/leaders/2020/10/08/the-pandemic-has-caused-the-worlds-economies-to-diverge
Leng, S., Zhen, L., Zheng, S., & Wu, W. (2018). Chinese President Xi Jinping stands up for globalisation and free trade at Asia’s Davos. South China Morning Post. https://www.scmp.com/news/china/economy/article/2141099/chinese-president-xi-jinping-stands-globalisation-free-trade
Li, Y. (2020a). China Silences Critics Over Deadly Virus Outbreak. The New York Times. https://www.nytimes.com/2020/01/22/health/virus-corona.html
Li, Y. (2020b). Widespread Outcry in China Over Death of Coronavirus Doctor. The New York Times. https://www.nytimes.com/2020/02/07/business/china-coronavirus-doctor-death.html
Linz, J., & Stepan, A. (1996). Problems of Democratic Transition and Consolidation: Southern Europe, South America and Post-Communist Europe. London: The Johns Hopkins University Press.
Lo, B. (2020). Global Order in the Shadow of the Coronavirus: China, Russia, and the West. Lowy Institute Analysis, 1-42. https://www.lowyinstitute.org/publications/global-order-shadow-coronavirus-china-russia-and-west
McDonell, S. (2020). Coronavirus: China outbreak city Wuhan raises death toll by 50%. BBC. https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-china-52321529
Mearsheimer, J. (2020). Has China Won? | Kishore Mahbubani | John Mearsheimer | Tom Switzer. Centre for Independent Studies. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZnkC7GXmLdo
Nye, J. S. (2017). Will the Liberal Order Survive? The History of An Idea. Foreign Affairs, 96(1), 10-16.
Pagan, A. J. (2020). El ascenso de China y la desunión del Occidente liberal. Política Exterior. https://www.politicaexterior.com/el-ascenso-de-china-y-la-desunion-del-occidente-liberal/
Parenti, F. (2020). Positive new consensus on China emerging in EU. Global Times. https://www.globaltimes.cn/content/1185590.shtml
Partington, R. (2021). US economy returns to pre-pandemic level but misses growth forecasts. The Guardian. https://www.theguardian.com/business/2021/jul/29/us-economy-returns-to-pre-pandemic-level-but-misses-growth-forecasts
Payne, D. (2020). Big 3rd Quarter, Modest Growth Coming in 1st Quarter of 2021. Kiplinger. https://www.kiplinger.com/economic-forecasts/gdp
Pompeo, M. (2020). Communist China and the Free World´s Future. U.S. Department of State. https://www.state.gov/communist-china-and-the-free-worlds-future/
Reuters. (2017). President Xi says China will not export its political system. https://www.reuters.com/article/us-china-parties-idUSKBN1DV4UM
Reuters. (2020). Xi warned officials that efforts to stop virus could hurt economy: sources. https://www.reuters.com/article/us-china-health-xi-economy-idUSKBN2050JL
Robertson, N. (2020). The pandemic could reshape the world order. Trump’s chaotic strategy is accelerating US losses. CNN. https://edition.cnn.com/2020/05/23/world/pandemic-world-order-trump-intl/index.html
Rogin, J. (2020). Don’t blame ‘China’ for the coronavirus — blame the Chinese Communist Party. The Washington Post. https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/global-opinions/dont-blame-china-for-the-coronavirus--blame-the-chinese-communist-party/2020/03/19/343153ac-6a12-11ea-abef-020f086a3fab_story.html
Sandri, P. (2020). China expande su liderazgo tras el acuerdo de libre comercio Asia-Pacífico. La Vanguardia. https://www.lavanguardia.com/economia/20201116/49480831865/rcep-asia-pacifico-libre-comercio-acuerdo-tratado-china-asean.html
Schacht, K. (2020). The real winners of the US-China trade dispute. Deutsche Welle. https://www.dw.com/en/the-real-winners-of-the-us-china-trade-dispute/a-55420269
Schuman, M. (2020). Why China Wants Trump to Win. The Atlantic. https://www.theatlantic.com/international/archive/2020/07/why-china-wants-donald-trump-win/613864/
Song, J., & White, E. (2019). South Korea urges Trump to drop threatened car tariffs. Financial Times. https://www.ft.com/content/6b4d2bb0-72ea-11e9-bf5c-6eeb837566c
Tang, F. (2020). China to overtake US as world’s top economy in 2032 despite Washington hostilities, state think tank predicts. South China Morning Post. https://www.scmp.com/economy/china-economy/article/3099951/china-overtake-us-worlds-top-economy-2032-despite-washington
Tsang, S. (2020). Party-State Realism: A Framework for Understanding China’s Approach to Foreign Policy. Journal of Contemporary China, 29(122), 304-318. https://doi.org/10.1080/10670564.2019.1637562
United Nations. (2020). Global foreign direct investment halved amid pandemic, but China remained resilient. UN News. https://news.un.org/en/story/2020/10/1076232
Walker, T. (2020). COVID-19: China and Australia relations. La Trobe University. https://www.latrobe.edu.au/news/articles/2020/opinion/covid-19-china-and-australia-relations
Wendt, A. (2003). Social Theory of International Politics (Cambridge). New York. https://doi.org/10.1017/CBO9780511612183
Wong, B. (2020). China's Mask Diplomacy. The Diplomat. https://thediplomat.com/2020/03/chinas-mask-diplomacy/
World Economic Forum. (2020). China’s economy has rebounded after a steep slump - but challenges lie ahead. Covid Action Platform. https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2020/07/chinas-economy-rebounds-after-steep-slump-u-s-tensions-weak-consumption-raise-challenges/
Wu, C. (2020). Ideational Differences, Perception Gaps, and the Emerging Sino-US Rivalry. The Chinese Journal of International Politics, 13(1), 27-68. https://doi.org/https://doi.org/10.1093/cjip/poz020
Yang, S., & Liu, X. (2020). China points direction for post-pandemic world. Global Times. https://www.globaltimes.cn/content/1189361.shtml
Downloads
Published
How to Cite
Issue
Section
License
The authors of articles published in Comillas Journal of International Relations retain the intellectual property rights over their works and grant the journal their distribution and public communication rights, consenting to their publication under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivates 4.0 Unported. Authors are encouraged to publish their work on the Internet (for example, on institutional or personal pages, repositories, etc.) respecting the conditions of this license and quoting appropriately the original source.
