A Contribution to a European Strategy for the Well-being of Citizens in the Face of Automation
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.14422/icade.i109.y2020.002Keywords:
technological unemployment, well-being, European UnionAbstract
This article investigates the current and expected impact of automation technology in the well-being of European citizens. First, we explore the technical, social and economic factors that determine technological progress and the implementation of the new technologies. Second, we review the expected impact of automation on employment. Finally, we assess the impact that automation will have on the well-being of European citizens in light of the two first sections. To this end, we draw on the expected asymmetrical impact of automation in people with different education levels and on current inequality trends. Throughout the article, we use a normative approach, prescribing what European policy makers should take into account in light of our findings. We find that it is unclear what the net effect of technology on employment will be, but automation of non-routine manual and cognitive tasks will displace a significant percentage of workers. We find that current trends of increasing inequalities will intensify due to the fact that automation will affect more low-skilled workers. We find that the current institutional design of the European Union is unfit to tackle educational and social protection challenges. We can therefore expect social resistance to technological progress and political instability in the years to come.
References
Acemoglu, D., & Robinson, J. (2012). Why nations fail: the origins of power, prosperity, and poverty. London: Profile Books.
Armstrong, S., & Sotala, K. (2012). How we’re predicting AI – or failing to. Tech. Rep. Oxford: Future of Humanity Institute, Oxford University.
Arntz, M., Gregory, T., & Zierahn, U. (2016). The Risk of Automation for Jobs in OECD Countries: A Comparative Analysis. OECD Social, Employment and Migration Working Papers, 189. Paris: OECD Publishing.
Ascari, A., Bakshi, A., Grijpink, F., & Moss, P. (2010). mHealth: A new vision for healthcare. London: McKinsey&Company and GSMA.
Ashford, N. (2018). Regulation-induced innovation. Lecture with PowerPoint at the College of Europe.
Aunión, J. (2013, November 28). 35 años y siete leyes escolares. El País. Retrieved from: https://elpais.com/sociedad/2013/11/26/actualidad/1385489735_160991.html (last accessed, 30/04/2018).
Autor, D. (2014). Polanyi's Paradox and the Shape of Employment Growth. NBER Working Paper Nº 20485.
Autor, D., Levy, F., & Murnane, R. J. (2003). The skill content of recent technological change: An empirical exploration. The Quarterly Journal of Economics, 118(4), 1279-1333. doi: https://doi.org/10.1162/003355303322552801
Berg, A. G., & Ostry, J. D. (2011). Inequality and Unsustainable Growth: Two Sides of the Same Coin?. IMF Staff Discussion Note, SDN/11/08.
Bjørnebye, H. (2006). Interconnecting the internal electricity market: A goal without a plan? Oil. Gas & Energy Law, 1.
Bonny, S. (2003). Why are most Europeans opposed to GMOs? Factors explaining rejection in France and Europe. Electronic Journal of Biotechnology, 6(1). doi: https://doi.org/10.2225/vol6-issue1-fulltext-4
Boston Consulting Group (2015). Back to the Future: The Road to Autonomous Driving. Retrieved from: http://de.slideshare.net/TheBostonConsultingGroup/the-road-to-autonomous-driving (last accessed 01/05/2018).
Bowles, J. (2014). The Computerization of European Jobs. Brussels: Bruegel.
Brynjolfsson, E., & McAfee, A. (2011). Race Against the Machine. Digital Frontier Press.
Chandler, D. (2013). Researcher finds Moore's Law and Wright's Law best predict how tech improves. Phys.org. Retrieved from: https://phys.org/news/2013-03-law-wright-tech.html (last accessed 15/05/2020).
Clifford, G. D., & Clifton, D. (2012). Wireless technology in disease management and medicine. Annual Review of Medicine, 63, 479-492. doi: https://doi.org/10.1146/annurev-med-051210-114650
Council of Europe (2018). The case for a basic citizenship income. Parliamentary Assembly. Doc. 14462.
Danziger, S., Levav, J., & Avnaim-Pesso, L. (2011). Extraneous factors in judicial decisions. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 108(17), 6889-6892. doi: https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1018033108
Darkins, A., Ryan, P., Kobb, R., Foster, L., Edmonson, E., Wakefield, B., & Lancaster, A. E. (2008). Care coordination/home telehealth: the systematic implementation of health informatics, home telehealth, and disease management to support the care of veteran patients with chronic conditions. Telemedicine and e-Health, 14(10), 1118-1126. doi: https://doi.org/10.1089/tmj.2008.0021
Delaney, K. (2017). The robot that takes your job should pay taxes, says Bill Gates. Quartz. Retrieved from: https://qz.com/911968/bill-gates-the-robot-that-takes-your-job-should-pay-taxes/ (last accessed 01/05/2018).
Dobbs, R., Manyika, J., & Woetzel, J. (2015). No Ordinary Disruption: The Four Global Forces Breaking All the Trends. New York: PublicAffairs.
Easterlin, R. A. (1974). Does economic growth improve the human lot? Some empirical evidence. Journal: Nations and households in economic growth, 89, 89-125. doi: https://doi.org/10.1016/B978-0-12-205050-3.50008-7
Elhauge, E. (2016). Horizontal Shareholding. Harvard Law Review, 109, 1267-1317.
Encyclopædia Britannica (n. d.). Moore's law. Encyclopædia Britannica, inc. Retrieved from: https://www.britannica.com/technology/Moores-law.
Eurobarometer (2010). Biotechnology Report. Special Eurobarometer 341. Eurobarometer 73.1.
European Commission (2008). Communication from the Commission to the European Parliament, the Council, the European Economic and Social Committee and the Committee of the Regions. A renewed commitment to social Europe: Reinforcing the Open Method of Coordination for Social Protection and Social Inclusion.
European Commission (2015). Ex-post economic evaluation of competition policy enforcement: A Review of the literature.
European Commission (2016). Communication from the Commission to the European Parliament, the Council, the European Economic and Social Committee and the Committee of the Regions. A New Skills Agenda for Europe.
European Commission (2017a). Digital Transformation Monitor. Germany: Industrie 4.0.
European Commission (2017b). European Semester Thematic Factsheet. Adequacy and Sustainability of Pensions.
European Commission (2017c). European Semester Thematic Factsheet. Health Systems.
European Commission (2017d). Factsheets. Social Scoreboard 2017. Key Findings.
European Commission (2018). Proposal for a Council Recommendation on Key Competences for Lifelong Learning.
European Commission (n. d.). Poverty and social exclusion. DG for Employment, Social Affairs and Inclusion. Retrieved from: http://ec.europa.eu/social/main.jsp?langId=en&catId=751 (last accessed 01/05/2018).
European Ombudsman (2017). Ombudsman asks President Tusk to publish meetings with lobbyists. Press release11/2017.
European Parliament (2016). Major changes in European public opinion regarding the European Union. Exploratory study. European Parliament Research Service.
European Parliament (2018). On the proposal for a directive of the European Parliament and of the Council on the promotion of the use of energy from renewable sources (recast) COM(2016)0767 – C8-0500/2016 – 2016/0382(COD).
Fajardo, G., & Talaverano, J. (2018). Wp3: services for prosumers of solar energy. Legal context. Barriers and opportunities. ProSumE: Enabling Energy Prosumers Services.
Ffoulkes, P. (2017). InsideBIGDATA Guide to The Intelligent Use of Big Data on an Industrial Scale. Hewlett Packard Enterprise.
Goldin, C., & Katz, L. F. (2008). The race between education and technology. Harvard: Harvard University Press.
Graetz, G., & Michaels, G. (2015). Robots and Work Nº 8938. IZA Discussion Papers. Institute for the Study of Labor.
Gregory, T., Salomons, A., & Zierahn, U. (2015). Technological Change and Regional Labor Market Disparities in Europe. Mannheim: Centre for European Economic Research.
Harari, Y. N. (2016). Homo Deus. A Brief History of Tomorrow. London: Harvill Secker.
Harstad, B., & Svensson, J. (2008). From Corruption to Lobbying and Economic Growth. Working paper. Kellogg School of Management.
International Federation of Robotics (2017). Executive Summary World Robotics 2017 Industrial Robots.
Karabarbounis, L., & Neiman, B. (2014). The global decline of the labor share. The Quarterly Journal of Economics, 129(1), 61-103. doi: https://doi.org/10.1093/qje/qjt032
Kelley, P., & Whatson, T. (2013). Making long-term memories in minutes: a spaced learning pattern from memory research in education. Frontiers in Human Neuroscience, 7, 589. doi: https://doi.org/10.3389/fnhum.2013.00589 (last accessed 01/05/2018).
Keynes, J. M. (1936). The General Theory of Employment, Interest and Money. London: Macmillan.
Korus, S. (2017). Industrial Robot Cost Decline. Ark-invest. Retrieved from: https://ark-invest.com/research/industrial-robot-costs#fn-23911-1
Kurzgesagt (2017). The Rise of the Machines – Why Automation is Different this Time. Youtube video. Retrieved from: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WSKi8HfcxEk&t=215s (last accessed 01/05/2018).
Kurzweil, R. (1999). The age of Spiritual Machines. New York: Viking Press.
Lebowitz, S. (2015). Every time you dial into these call centers, your personality is being silently assessed. Business Insider UK. Retrieved from: http://www.businessinsider.com/how-mattersight-uses-personality-science-2015-9 (last accessed on 30/04/2018).
Levine, M. (2015). Guy Trading at Home Caused the Flash Crash. Bloomberg. Retrieved from: https://www.bloomberg.com/view/articles/2015-04-21/guy-trading-at-home-caused-the-flash-crash (last accessed on 30/04/2018).
Lundy, D. (2017). The Corporate Europe Observatory Guide to the Murky World of EU Lobbying. Corporate Europe Observatory.
Margaronis, M. (2008, December 13). How police shooting of a teenage boy rallied the ‘€700 generation’. The Guardian. Retrieved from: https://www.theguardian.com/world/2008/dec/13/athens-greece-riotsRetrieved from (last accessed 01/05/2018).
Marmot, M. (2010). Fair Society, Healthy Lives. Strategic review of health inequalities in England post 2010. London: The Marmot Review.
Mazur, M., & Wisniewski, A. (2016). Clarity from above. PwC global report on the commercial applications of drone technology. PWC, Drone Powered Solutions.
Mazzucato, M. (2013). The Entrepreneurial State: Debunking Public vs. Private Sector Myths. London: Anthem Press.
Metz, C. (2017, October 22). Tech Giants Are Paying Huge Salaries for Scarce A.I. Talent. The New York Times. Retrieved from: https://www.nytimes.com/2017/10/22/technology/artificial-intelligence-experts-salaries.html (last accessed on 30/04/2018).
Mindojo (n. d.). Making quality education universally accessible and affordable. Retrieved from: https://mindojo.com/about-company.html (last accessed 01/05/2018).
Mokyr, J. (1992). The lever of riches. Oxford: Oxford University Press.
Mokyr, J. (1993). Creative Forces. Reason. Free minds and free markets. May 1993 issue.
Moore, G. E. (1965). Cramming More Components onto Integrated Circuits. Electronics, 114-117.
Moreno, M. (2018, March 28). Para invertir analizamos por satélite la ocupación de los aparcamientos de Ikea. Cinco Días. Retrieved from: https://cincodias.elpais.com/cincodias/2018/03/26/mercados/1522073179_004863.html (last accessed 01/05/2018).
Nagy, B., Farmer, J., Bui, Q., & Trancik, J. (2012). Statistical Basis for Predicting Technological Progress. PLoS ONE, 8(2), 52669. doi: https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0052669
Nguyen, L. (2018). The era of quantum computing? Not quite yet. Wikitribune. Retrieved from: https://www.wikitribune.com/story/2018/02/16/technology/the-era-of-quantum-computing-not-quite-yet/49197 (last accessed 01/05/2018).
OECD (2013). OECD Guidelines on Measuring Subjective Well-being. OECD Publishing.
OECD (2017a). Education at a Glance 2017: OECD Indicators. Paris: OECD Publishing.
OECD (2017b). Pensions at a Glance 2017: OECD and G20 Indicators. Paris: OECD Publishing.
Pajarinen, M., & Rouvinen, P. (2014). Computerization Threatens One Third of Finnish Employment. ETLA Brief, 22.
Partnership for 21st Century Learning (2007a). Framework for 21st Century Learning.
Partnership for 21st Century Learning (2007b). Framework definitions.
Pelkmans, J., & Kapff, L. (2010). Interconnector Investment for a Well-functioning Internal Market. What EU regime of regulatory incentives?. Bruges European Economic Research Papers, 18.
Phua, C. (2010). A Comprehensive Survey of Data Mining-based Fraud Detection Research. Intelligent Computation Technology and Automation (ICICTA).
Pupillo, L., Noam, E., & Waverman, L. (2018). The internet and jobs. CEPS policy insight, 2018/06.
Ramos, G., & Mann, C. (2017). A Fiscal Approach for Inclusive Growth in G7 Countries. OECD.
Reddy, S., & Reinartz, W. (2017). Digital Transformation and Value Creation: Sea Change Ahead. Marketing Intelligence Review, 9(1), 10-17. doi: https://doi.org/10.1515/gfkmir-2017-0002
Reed, D. (2015). Why blimps and airships died out – and how they might make a comeback. Citymetric. Retrieved from: https://www.citymetric.com/transport/why-blimps-and-airships-died-out-and-how-they-might-make-comeback-722 (last accessed 01/05/2018).
Renda, A. (2018). No Need for Speed when it Comes to Autonomous Vehicles. Forbes. Retrieved from: https://www.forbes.com/sites/washingtonbytes/2018/03/20/no-need-for-speed-when-it-comes-to-autonomous-vehicles/#67b16b6d133f (last accessed 01/05/2018).
Renda, A., & Yoo, C. (n. d.). Telecommunications and Internet Services: The digital side of the TTIP. Paper No. 8. CEPS-CTR project ‘TTIP in the Balance’ and CEPS Special Report, 112.
Rhee, D., & Kim, H. (2017). Does income inequality increase marginal propensity to consume?. Applied Economics Letters, 25(17), 1218-1221. doi: https://doi.org/10.1080/13504851.2017.1412067
Samuel, L. (1959). Some Studies in Machine Learning Using the Game of Checkers. IBM Journal, July, 210-229.
Seequestor (n. d.). Products and Services. Retrieved from: https://www.seequestor.com/#/productServices (last accessed 01/05/2018).
Son, H. (2017). JPMorgan Software Does in Seconds What Took Lawyers 360,000 Hours. Retrieved from: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-02-28/jpmorgan-marshals-an-army-of-developers-to-automate-high-finance (last accessed 30/04/2018).
Sprague, S. (2014). What Can Labor Productivity Tell Us About the U.S. Economy?. US Bureau of Labor Statistics, Beyond the Numbers, 3(12).
Stiglitz, J. (2012). El precio de la desigualdad: el 1% de población tiene lo que el 99% necesita. Barcelona: Taurus.
Stuchlik, A. (2015). Wage developments in the euro area. Increasingly unequal?. European Parliament Research Service.
Taleb, N. N. (2007). The black swan: the impact of the highly improbable. New York: Random House.
Talus, K., & Wälde, T. (2006). Electricity interconnectors: A serious challenge for EC Competition Law. Competition and Regulation in Network Industries, 1(3), 355-390. doi: https://doi.org/10.1177/178359170600100302
Watson Health (2018). Watson Health: Get the Facts. Retrieved from: https://www.ibm.com/blogs/watson-health/watson-health-get-facts/ (last accessed 30/04/2018).
Winter, J., & Teitelbaum, M. (2013). The Global Spread of Fertility Decline: Population, Fear, and Uncertainty. New Haven, CT: Yale University Press.
Woetzel, J., Garemo, N., Mischke, J., Hjerpe, M., & Palter, R. (2016). Bridging global infrastructure gaps. McKinsey Global Institute.
Z. E. W. (2015). IKT-Report. Unternehmensbefragung zur Nutzung von Informations- und KommunikationstechnologienOctober 2015, Zentrum für Europäische Wirtschaftsforschung, Mannheim (read in Arntz, M., T. Gregory & U. Zierahn (2016), The Risk of Automation for Jobs in OECD Countries: A Comparative Analysis. OECD Social, Employment and Migration Working Papers, 189, Paris: OECD Publishing, Paris).
Published
How to Cite
Issue
Section
License
The authors of articles published in icade. Revista de la Facultad de Derecho retain the intellectual property rights over their works and grant the journal their distribution and public communication rights, consenting to their publication under aCreative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivates 4.0 Internacional. Authors are encouraged to publish their work on the Internet (for example, on institutional or personal pages, repositories, etc.) respecting the conditions of this license and quoting appropriately the original source.